Flatten the Curve: What? Why? How?
Over the last few days, Sri Lanka has taken several steps to limit public movement and large gatherings. School holidays have commenced early, sporting events have been postponed, cinemas and theatres alike have been shut down, large public gatherings have been prohibited for two weeks and people are being encouraged to stay home. All of these measures are being carried out in an effort to stop the spread of the virus and ‘flatten the curve’.
What does it mean to ‘flatten the curve’?
When a virus starts to spread, it infects a few people at the start. Over time, as more people become exposed to the virus, the number of people infected increases. If you look at the graph below, you will notice that only a few cases of Covid-19 were found at the start in our country. However, as the weeks passed, the number of cases slowly increased. Over the last few days, the number of cases has rapidly increased.
Like with most viruses, the number of cases will continue to grow till it reaches a peak, after which people will start to recover and the number of cases will start to drop, as shown in the graph below.
If precautions are not taken to stop the virus from spreading, there will be a greater increase in the number of cases, creating a steeper curve (as depicted in pink). However, if measures such as quarantining patients and practicing “social distancing” are put in place early enough, the spread of the virus could be slowed, resulting in a smaller curve (as depicted in grey). This simply means that the virus will spread more slowly and to less people.
“Flattening the curve means that we reduce the speed at which the virus spreads, and reduce the number of total cases over time.”
If we take the dotted line in the graph above as the full capacity of our existing healthcare system, for example, then the steeper curve (indicating a rapid increase in reported cases) can push our healthcare system to perform beyond its limits to cope with the situation. On the other hand, a lower curve means that the virus is spreading, but is spreading more slowly, which gives the healthcare system time to respond to cases more effectively.
How do we flatten the curve?
The virus is spread from person to person via small droplets that are expelled from the nose or mouth of an infected person. These droplets can land on other objects and can either be breathed in by another person or get on their hands and can cause them to get infected.
The most important personal steps that you can take to help contain the spread of the virus and flatten the curve are:
- Staying indoors and avoiding all non-essential interactions
- Frequently washing your hands with soap and water for 20 seconds and;
- Practicing good respiratory hygiene, like sneezing and coughing into the inside of your elbow or a tissue.
Break the link today. We ALL have a role to play in Sri Lanka’s response to COVID-19.
Spread the word, not the virus.
For more information:
https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1
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Citra Social Innovation Lab is a joint initiative between the Ministry of Higher Education, Technology and Innovation and UNDP in Sri Lanka.
